王冠谈拜登就职：动人的演说，撕裂的美国

引言：拜登呼唤“团结”的激情演说落幕，在上台两天内创记录连颁17项行政令，开足马力为美国“拨乱反正”。CGTN主播、前驻美@记者王冠认为，拜登所接手的不仅是特朗普的“遗产”，更多的是美国四大制度性束缚：短期来看，包括国会共和党人的议事阻挠（filibuster）和左右撕裂的加剧。中长期而言，则将面对“深层政府”和选举人团制度的制约。

Editor’s note: Biden’s inaugural speech calling for "unity" has just ended. And within two days of taking office, he set a record and issued 17 administrative orders in a row, making full use of his newly-gained power to quench chaos in the United States. CGTN Anchor Wang Guan believes the message of unity from Joe Biden’s inaugural speech was beautiful. Yet in reality, there are systemic odds against Biden, including potential Senate GOP filibuster, widening division, and the electoral college system. Let’s see what he says in detail.

作为一名时政关注者和曾驻华盛顿八年的记者，我必须承认，乔•拜登的就职演说让我印象深刻。拜登无疑是个政客。他的讲演必须切中要点，所传递的信息也经过了专门设计以迎合其基本盘。但拜登同时也是位饱经岁月风霜和磨难的人。他说克服分歧、折中求和，还是能引发许多人的共鸣。但作为华盛顿建制派的一员，拜登比大多数人都清楚，美国面临着若干系统性和体制性障碍。

As a student of politics and former Washington correspondent of eight years, I must say Joe Biden’s inaugural speech was impressive. Biden is a politician for sure, hitting all the right notes and tailoring the message to appeal to his base. But this is also a man who has experienced more than his fair share of adversity in life. And when he talked about overcoming differences and meeting each other half-way, it struck a cord with many. 

But as part of the Washington establishment, Biden knows better than most that there are systemic, institutional obstacles. 

共和党在国会中的阻挠议事就是其中之一。拜登可以撤销特朗普曾作出的行政命令，再签发自己的行政命令，这也是他目前正在做的。但那些目标更为宏大的经济、医疗和环境政策提案则需要得到共和党的支持才能获得通过。

共和党参议员可以拖延某一提案的表决时间，方法就是在参议院发起针对该提案的讨论，并无休止地谈论各种问题。这被称为“阻挠议事” 。民主党手中没有能够终止阻挠议事所需的60张票。例如，在奥巴马-拜登时期，针对无合法身份的移民推出的“梦想法案”和有关气候问题的“清洁能源与安全法案”均未能立法，原因就是受到了共和党的阻挠。有数据表明，在过去10年中，反对党使用阻挠议事策略的次数大幅增加。拜登还承诺解决种族歧视等系统性问题。但想要针对比如说选举人团制度或者《选举权法》出台宪法修正案，就必须在国会获得三分之二的多数支持。民主党手中的票数仍然达不到这一比例。

The GOP filibuster is one of them. Biden can repeal Trump’s executive orders and issue a dozen of his own, as he’s doing. But for his more ambitious policy proposals on the economy, healthcare and environment, he will need support from Republicans. 

Senate Republicans can delay voting on a bill by taking it up to the Senate floor and talking about any issue, for as long as they want. That is known as a filibuster. Democrats don’t have the 60 votes needed to end a filibuster. For example, during the Obama-Biden era，the DREAM Act on undocumented immigrants and American Clean Energy and Security Act on climate couldn’t become laws due to Republican opposition. Data shows over the past 10 years, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of filibusters by an opposition party. Biden also promised to address structural issues like racism, but to make constitutional amendments on, say, the electoral college system or the Voting Rights Act, it would require a two-thirds majority in Congress, which again the Democrats don’t have. 

另一个障碍是选举人团制度。许多人认为这一制度在总统选举和参议院选举中对共和党有利。这一点值得关注。在过去的六次总统选举中，乔治•布什是最后一位赢得了多数选民票的候选人。但即便如此，共和党仍赢得了三次大选。部分原因是，太平洋沿岸地区人口稠密的“蓝州”在参议院中占有两个席位，和乡村地区人口较少的“红州”相同。也就是说，有4000万人口的加利福尼亚州所占的选举人票中，按照参议院席位分配的部分就和仅有50万人口的怀俄明州相同。

Another challenge is the electoral college system, which many believe currently favors Republicans in presidential races and Senate representation. This is interesting. In the last six presidential elections, George Bush was the last Republican candidate to win the popular vote. Despite that, Republicans won three of those six races. That’s partly because coastal, largely populated “blue states” have the same number of Senate seats of two as those rural, less populated “red states”. For example, California, which has a population of 40 million, has the same number of Senate-seat-apportioned electoral college votes as Wyoming, with its population of just half a million. 

进而就有了我下面要说的，美国目前的分裂局面。拜登使用了代表“团结”之意的单词11次，“全部”之意的单词24次。他说他将成为所有美国人的总统。但国会山骚乱事件一周后，昆尼皮亚克大学的一项民意调查显示，受访者当中73%的共和党人仍坚持认为拜登在选举中获胜是因为存在大规模舞弊，而93%的民主党人则表示这是子虚乌有。同时，81%的共和党人认为特朗普不该下台，也不该被禁止再次竞选公职。而87%的民主党人则持相反意见。

And this leads to my next point, America’s current division. Biden used the word “unity” or “unite” 11 times and “all” 24 times, saying he will be president for all Americans. 

But a week after the Capitol Riot, a Quinnipiac University poll showed that 73% of Republicans still insist there was widespread fraud in Biden’s election win. But 93% of Democrats say there was no such thing. Also, 81% of Republicans do not believe Trump should be removed from office and banned from running public office again, whereas 87% of Democrats think he should. 

在社交媒体时代，人们倾向于通过新闻推送获取符合自己固有看法的个性化信息。这会进一步加深左右各派、以及各群体内不同派系间的分歧。至此我们只探讨了部分制约因素，其他的障碍还包括深层国家以及选举政治等等。 

话虽如此，我还是愿意祝愿乔•拜登好运，起码一个稳定理性的美国更有益于世界。

In the age of social media, people tend to get personalized information via a newsfeed that conforms to their pre-existing biases. This can further divide the Left and Right, black and white, and different factions within each group. And we haven’t even talked about other constraining factors, such as the deep state and electoral politics. 

That said, I want to wish Joe Biden good luck, not least because a stable and reasonable America is better for the world.

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